Bayesian Network (BN) models can integrate different types of knowledge.
Probabilistic Bayesian Network models have been identified by the Sustainable Seas National Science Challenge as key tools used to inform marine management decision-making. BNs are useful because they can integrate empirical and expert based ecological data, as well as social, cultural, and economic values. We adapted an existing BN model to assist Ministry for the Environment (MfE) efforts to identify values and aspirations for local estuaries throughout Aotearoa New Zealand and identify gaps in the current national and regional/local governance and management systems. Model scenarios were developed for three case study estuaries (Whangateau, Kakanui, Ahuriri), and results presented at workshops with local communities to help:

• address management concerns
• support participatory processes.
  

Overall, our experience with these three case studies highlighted the ability of local communities to appreciate the underlying concepts and be willing to use participatory tools to question the effectiveness and risks of proposed management actions. For the existing BN to support the MfE process and local communities and management agencies in decision making, extensions were necessary. In particular, the model was extended to incorporate the effects of marine heatwaves and changes to the quantity of freshwater inflows. A method was also demonstrated whereby local communities could add components and species of local importance and include their own expert opinions. We are currently working to publish the updated BN for the scientific literature.